Company News
February 2, 2012
Boston Realty Advisors retained to sell 19,847 s/f 1650 Commonwealth Avenue, featured in the New England Real Estate Jounal
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February 1, 2012
Boston Realty Advisors Sells Two Trophy Newbury Street Assets in Boston, featured in the SunHerald
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January 31, 2012
Copley Group Wins Battle For Newbury Street Properties, featured in the Banker & Tradesman
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January 27, 2012
Dual offering that encompasses 53 units in Harvard Square, featured in the Real Reporter
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January 13, 2012
BRA on High Ground With Brighton Site, featured in the Real Reporter
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Reflections on the Housing Market by Karl E. Case

Earlier this year, renowned economist Karl E. Case wrote a summation of the housing crisis and the 'Great Recession' in the form of a poem called, 'Reflections on the Housing Market'.

Dr. Case is the Professor of Economics at Wellesley College, a Founding Partner of the real estate research firm Fiserv Case Shiller Weiss, Inc., and he also co-developed the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which is the most widely referenced source of housing market prices in the U.S. today.  

Dr. Case was one of the economists that predicted the current collapse of the U.S. housing bubble.  In his poem below, he writes about the early indicators of the troubles to come, the crisis as it unfolded, the effects the collapse is still having today.

He closes the poem by acknowledging that markets will correct themselves in time, no matter what, and calls for politicians to work towards a solution to the problems created by the housing bubble collapse.       

Do you agree with Dr. Case's summation?  What do you think politicians can do to 'help find solutions'?  Share your thoughts in the comment section below.  

Reflections on the Housing Market
By 
Karl E. Case

"For the last few years, we have shed many tears
Living through a recession.
The economy's broke and it's not a joke,
When we talk of another depression.
Fifteen million without a job,
Foreclosures and banks that fail,
401K's became 201K's,
And everything's up for sale.

How can it be? What didn't we see
That led to all of this trouble?
There is little doubt that the proximal cause
Was a bursting housing bubble.
But other than that, who can we blame?
And what do they lament?
Millions of people contributed to
This hundred-year event.
"

Read the full poem by Chip Case.

The collapse of the housing bubble really emphasizes the importance of  investing in a home that has intrinsic value to you and to future buyers.  If you need help finding a Boston property you can feel confident in investing in, you can rely on the experience and knowledge of a Boston Realty Advisor to help you find the ideal Boston real estate to meet your needs.

Posted at 12/28/2010 08:27 AM

CEO David Friedberg Speaks with Barney Frank about Housing

Last night Boston Realty Advisors' CEO David Friedberg, lobbied Congressman Barney Frank for another housing tax credit program based on the success of the First-Time Buyer Tax Credit Programs of 2009!

He also talked about a new Boston property plan for HUD (Housing and Urban Development) similar to those from the early 70's which created housing for the moderate and poor while creating 1,000's of jobs for the Bay State.

 BRA CEO David Friedberg speaks with Barney Frank
 
Frank spoke to the Brookline Chamber of Commerce and Selectmen and the Town Manager at Pine Manor College as part of the Brookline Chamber of Commerce Dinner Speaker Series, which features notable speakers and topics to benefit the Brookline community.
Posted at 10/15/2010 10:34 AM by Admin

Dog Days of Summer

Why do they call these the dog days of summer I wonder? Could it have anything to do with consuming hot dogs perhaps? 

I read somewhere or maybe heard it on a radio talk show Howie Carr or NPR or somewhere that in 2009, consumers spent more than $1.6 billion that's BILLION with a B on hot dogs and sausages in U.S. supermarkets. Gosh if you think about it that's alot of dogs! Or could it be they call it dog days of summer simply because someone once noticed a correlation between a hot day and their lazy dog just laying around in the shade doing nothing.  Just resting.  Could it be that simple I wonder? Interesting. 

Hot Dog Vendor in the USA

Well it seems we sure are experiencing some pretty serious dog days so far this month!  100-105 degrees oh my! And I'll tell you it affects me. Not just the way the heat makes me feel slow but it affects work. While I can lay in the shade and rest any time I want in the type of work I do...that would be real estate sales.... unfortunately I can't do it for long.  As a REALTOR I'm pretty much self employed and often host open houses on Sunday's to meet prospective buyers (a small part of the marketing I do to reach out to prospective clients).  In the Real Estate world Sundays it seems is the traditional day to host open houses.  It sounds logical because most work from Monday to Friday however is it really practical? Does it make sense to host open houses on a weekend in the summer time? The dog days of summer time.

Hosting open houses hasn't been so much fun these past few weeks.  I assume if you're a sales agent or know one (and most of us know someone who is one) you know what I mean.  I really don't mind giving up a hot day at the beach or laying by my brother's pool to stand instead in a beautiful air conditioned home for a few hours.  Especially these days it's more important to me that I build my business and a future retirement.  God knows I've done enough bathing, lounging and BBQing to last a life time. As I said it's not so bad hosting an open house during these hot dog days. So I do it for myself and for others I work with at my company.  I stand there in the comfort of an air conditioned unit with iced coffee in one hand and listing sheet in the other.  Then someone enters!!!  And I've got to say how exciting it is when that sweaty, drained and tired home seeker happens to finally come through my door! Can you imagine how excited I am?.!?# I smile at them and offer a hand shake.  Some catch their breath while kindly shewing me away with a grin not interested in talking with me and others engage in a little kabitzing then off they go.  These days it seems there are fewer and fewer visitors.  Maybe I should consider offering lemonade or something thirst quenching...hmmm...

Seems many a Sunday has passed with only a few to none pay me a visit at my air conditioned listing.  Other than offering an iced beverage we're doing all the right things. Advertising. Marketing. Could they all be enjoying themselves at the beach on these dog days of summer? Or perhaps basking in the shade under a tree drinking their ice tea?  Yeah I'll bet they are hanging out being handed a beer and a grilled dog somewhere fun. 

Well we all work hard and deserve to enjoy dog days off especially on the weekend when all of our freinds are doing the same thing.  Enjoying themselves that is..  And who really wants to walk around 105 degree Boston touring open houses sweating bullets all over the place when they could be sprawled out with their face planted in a blanket on Carson Beach in Southie or sailing the Boston Harbor with friends or throwing a fishing line out to hook one of the many thousands of yummy striped bass swimming our waters right now!!

But isn't touring open houses important to some of you who recognize property values and interest rates are at the lowest they have ever been in a LONG time?  Touring open houses gives buyers AND sellers a better perspective of what a certain square footage can buy them in a particular neighborhood of interest.  It's an opportunity to investigate, talk to the agent and learn details they wouldn't if they just read about the unit.

So how about attending an open house on a weekday?  Perhaps after work when the sun is going down and it's more convenient for you?  Attending an open house on a week night for example promises not to interrupt your dog day summer afternoons especially the weekends!  And if you happen to spot a home that isn't open on a week night BUT wish to see it you can always call a qualified experienced AND helpful person like myself to set up a showing for you!  Happy Dog Days of Summer!

Vivian Zottola # 617-721-8025  617-721-8025 vzottola@bradvisors.com 

Boston Realty Advisors www.bradvisors.com

 

Posted at 07/11/2010 12:52 PM by Vivian Zottola

Jason Weissman Speaks At Harvard Business School

 

In recent company news, founder and principal of Boston Realty Advisors, Jason S. Weissman, served as a panelist at the annual 2010 Harvard Business School Real Estate Symposium Panel on Saturday. The annual Symposium was formed in 2007 in order to bring students together with the leading professionals within the real estate industry. The conference represents a rare opportunity to hear from and meet some of the most influential real estate executives in the United States. The professionals in attendance represent the full spectrum of property related companies, encompassing development to investment banking, property services, and acquisitions. You can see a list of the panelists with bios, here.

 

Posted at 03/01/2010 06:17 PM

Weekly Thoughts by Jason S. Weissman for the Week of February 22, 2010

 
Jason S. Weissman
Founder and Principal
Boston Realty Advisors
 
February is almost over and 2010 seems to be starting off very well. Over the last couple of weeks it seems that we have only discussed the “distressed” component of the real estate business. I have a couple of thoughts on some relevant distressed stories, but I’ll also identify some bright spots in the industry later in this post. But for now:
 
More Distress, and a show of the times..
 
In Nantucket this week, TD Bank North held a foreclosure auction for the Point Breeze. They repurchased the asset, via a credit bid of $22M. The existing debt for the development was $40M. See the story in the Nantucket Mirror.  http://www.ack.net/pointbreeze022510.html 
 

Last Friday, the New York post reported that One Madison Park is headed for foreclosure.
Click here for article
 
I identify these two totally unrelated assets, as each is quite high profile in their own right. A trophy Nantucket Island site, and a premier luxury condo project on Madison Park in NY. We will see many core assets in Triple A locations continuing to be foreclosed upon and pricing will continue to recalibrate. This leads me to my next points. The pricing recalibration process is very uncomfortable and painful for owners/borrowers and their respective property lenders. However, once the recalibration process occurs, whether through a foreclosure sale or otherwise (the lender selling the note, etc.) the market can begin to ‘work’ on the asset. In the case of Nantucket, TD Bank North will write down the $22M credit bid ($18M loss) and potentially look for a developer to either purchase all cash or provide new debt on the asset to a better capitalized developer in hopes that this process will bring the asset back to market and get the ‘work’ started.
 
The ‘work’ affect on the macro market is the following: builders begin to work again, vendors such as brokers, architects, attorney’s, interior designers, etc., can ‘work’ on the sale of the assets to end users. This will allow end users will be able to purchase the assets at the ‘market value.’ My scenario above would be an ideal situation, but unfortunately the process mentioned above is simply taking time, “a cog in the wheel,” as they say. But, we do see solid examples of recalibrated pricing, making the market move again, and getting the industry “working again.”
 
 
 
The Brighter Side:
 
Bayside Expo Center is "under contract" to UMASS Boston
 
You may remember that the Bayside Expo Center was lost to foreclosure last spring by Corcoran Jennison Company. The loan was $22M, and LNR repurchased it back by means of a credit bid for $11M. The site is now under contract for $18.7M or 85% of the loan value.
 
 
 John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum
We think this is a spectacular site. Given the macroeconomic environment, UMASS is the best buyer. For the City of Boston, it is a shame that this site cannot be redeveloped into a more neighborhood inclusive use, such as housing, public space and neighborhood retail. The waterfront views and proximity to the Harbor Walk and the JFK Library (where I run daily) all make this an incredible place, and I’m not sure that many Bostonian’s know how great it is. Take a look at the JFK Library Website and definitely take a visit --- http://www.jfklibrary.org/ I have said to many people before, Boston could really be a world class, waterfront city---like a Sydney Australia, if our Waterfronts were developed properly. But this is just a thought and a dream for now. For today, it’s a good thing that this asset is trading at 85% of the loan balance. Maybe UMASS Boston will add public spaces (parks and/or museum) and a commercial component to their redevelopment of the site.
 
View of the Waterfront and the Financial District from the Boston Harborwalk
 
Story from the WSJ – Commercial Sales Jump
This story references in the national press the sale of the One Brigham Circle Development to AEW, for a 6.5% cap rate!
 
 
We are definitely seeing a pent up demand for high quality, low risk investment grade product. Watch for some strong sub 7% cap rate retail deals in the Boston Market over the next four to six months.
Posted at 02/25/2010 09:53 AM by Jason S. Weissman

Weekly Thoughts by Jason S. Weissman for February 15th, 2010

“Residential CDO’s Still Are a Problem, a Big One---and Note to Self, Caveat Emptor, Always”
 
In this week’s Economist, in the special report, on “Financial Risk”, they featured the diagram below.
 
 

www.economist.com/specialreports/displayStory.cfm

 
 
Simply put, there is no need to explain it. Is this unbelievable? Not to state the obvious, but how can professionals at the bond rating agencies have such variance in their risk underwriting? The A+ Paper issuance category had an estimated default rate of .06% default rate over a three year period. The actual default rate  was 20.96%! That’s a variance rate between predicted an actual of performance of 34,833%. How can someone be off by an error of 34,833%? Especially, an expert, who focuses daily on underwriting and analyzing risk!
 
 
Rating Estimated Three Year Default Rate Actual Default Rate % Variance between Estimate and Actual
AAA 0.001 0.1 9900%
AA+ 0.01 1.68 16700%
AA 0.04 8.16 20300%
AA- 0.05 12.03 23960%
A+ 0.06 20.96 34833%
A 0.09 29.21 32356%
A- 0.12 36.55 30358%
BBB+ 0.34 48.73 14232%
BBB  0.49 56.1 11349%
BBB- 0.88 66.67 7476%
       
Source: Variance calculation by Boston Realty Advisors  
 
 
 
So when investing in real estate or notes securitized by real estate (or for any investment vehicle for that matter ), you need to rely on “practical” gut feel knowledge. Simply put , when hundreds of thousands of home buyers were putting zero equity into their home purchases  without  reserve or “skin” in the game, there was an obvious practical problem. This was definitely a case of “group think” on the part of the rating agencies. This topic has circulated the media world and our industry for about four years now. I am writing about in today’s Weekly Report simply based on the extent of how bad this problem was. Even in 2009, no one would of predicted that close to 70% of all BBB- paper would be in default.
 
So on Caveat emptor: don’t trust the experts, avoid group think. If something doesn’t feel right, it isn’t right.  That's how market bubbles are created; market fundamentals that just don't match up with 'everybody's doing it' mentality.  So, bottom line: trust your judgment and “Let the Buyer Beware!”
 
My Prediction: The real estate markets are functioning quite rationally, now. The micro-trend that I am now following that just doesn't make sense, is the following: Why/how the FHA is still lending between 95-97% on residential properties…I wish I had some other macro market "bubble" to predict, but this is the only one I can spot, for now.

 
I am the Founder and Principal of Boston Realty Advisors. Please check in weekly to review my blog entries. I value client/reader feedback!

 

Posted at 02/16/2010 09:08 AM by Jason S. Weissman

Good Job? Good Credit? Buy a Home NOW!

Buyers, do you get sick of Realtors telling you to buy NOW NOW NOW? Well, this is the time to listen, because it doesn't seem like it's going to get any better than, you guessed it, right NOW.

Today's Boston Herald has a story on why you should buy now (of course, assuming you're someone with good credit and a stable job):

  1. Rising Mortgage Rates: the Feds are going to end a $1Trillion program, and that means higher rates. Experts expect it to go from the current ~5% to a little over 6% by year end, according to the Mortgage Banker's Association.
  2. TAX CREDIT: It's a FREE $8,000 (or $6,500 for non-1st time buyers) I mean... seriously. Buy something. You have to be at accepted Purchase & Sale Agreement by 4/30 and closed by 7/1 to qualify. Want more details on the Tax Credit? Click here.
  3. Credit Issues: Banks aren't just giving money to anyone anymore. They want good credit, and rules are just trending stricter and stricter. Government programs like FHA have gone through many changes recently, tightening requirements both on applicants and condos & properties that qualify. More info on recent changes here.

If you have any questions about the buying process or would like to discuss your options, contact one of our dedicated buyer's agents.

 

Posted at 02/12/2010 09:59 AM by Tara Bellucci

Weekly Thoughts by Jason S. Weissman for the week of February 8, 2010

What will happen to the “Multifamily Sector” if Fannie/Freddie are Abolished?
Are you serious Mr. Frank?   In the past, one of Fannie Mae and Freddie MAC’s biggest advocates has been Congressman Barney Frank. Not anymore! According to statements quoted last week, Frank thinks that the agencies should be abolished and replaced with an entirely new system. My thoughts: Abolishing or greatly changing “agency debt” to the multifamily investment community would have terrible affects on the industry, and, more proximately, to “end users”, e.g., apartment renters.

Because of Fannie and Freddie's support , stabilized multifamily product has been the darling of the commercial real estate business. Cap rates for stabilized multifamily product has increased only by 100-150 basis points (10%-15% is a modest decline in value relative to theaverage commercial asset, which has declined 40-45% from its peak value).  Even through the financial crisis, “agency debt” has been available to fund loans with up to 80% loan to value. Yes, there will be defaults in the multifamily space, but, all-in-all, Fannie/Freddie has relatively low exposure to losses and defaults with its loans in the multifamily sector. According to the
National Multi Housing Council, as of 2009, Fannie Mae multifamily default rates (noncurrent) are less than .33% and Freddie Mac'sare .09%! Please keep in mind that the agencies make-up over 90% of the debt originated on multifamily real estate in the US. With this, most of the distress comes from the 10% of loans made that are not “agency debt.” Yes, Stuyvesant Town and Riverton Houses are very public “foreclosures” but these were atypical multifamily acquisitions.

Don’t confuse the “residential mortgage market” with the “multifamily mortgage market”
Mr. Frank should not confuse the on-going tsunami with Fannie/Freddie mortgage exposure on residential condos and single families, with loans to the multifamily sector. I absolutely agree that a “new system” is needed for residential mortgages. In regards to yesterday’s WSJ article (LINK enclosed), the extension on the loan modification program for residential mortgages is out right ridiculous! Freddie has 3.87% of their loans over 90 days delinquent, while Fannie has 5.29% delinquent. To “modify” these existing loans, will not work. Once the loans are modified,80%-90% of these loans will perpetually be problem loans—incurable. For once and for all, these loans should be flushed out of the system, not artificially maintained by the government and its administration.  
Why everybody benefits from Fannie/Freddie debt for Multifamily Assets?
The availability of multifamily debt at on up to 80% of the value of the property, makes for a fluid, active multifamily sector. It also stimulates potentially more supply, and pushes the market to “continuously” up-grade its product. Who benefits from this? The investor and the end user. The investor can count on a stable sector in which one can buy and sell product, and “hopefully”, only have to deal with old school fundamentals, such as the quality of the apartments, the assets location, rents and historical occupancies. If you buy a large multifamily asset with agency debt, and your exit strategy is predicated amongst selling the asset in a set time period to another buyer financed by “agency debt”, with potential changes to the agencies, you can not count on that exit strategy. If “the market” can’t count on liquidity, all investment principals need to be thrown out of the window. The benefit for apartment renters is that supply will continuously be added to the marketplace, therefore self regulating prices, and if there is available credit, multifamily owners will continuously upgrade their product.
Posted at 02/09/2010 04:13 PM by Jason S. Weissman

Weekly thoughts by Jason S. Weissman, for the week of February 1, 2010

“I Say, Follow the Debt!”
 
Over the last two years, since late Q4 2007, our firm has been actively 'selling' our advisory services to mortgagees/lenders (generally the banking industry). If you are around our office any day, you will hear me calling out, “Follow the debt!” What I mean by this is that in most cases---the lenders are in control, as investor's equity has eroded. Based on Boston Realty Advisors' rough estimates, in Massachusetts alone, we are tracking over 4,500 commercial/land/multifamily properties that are 'underwater' or more technically, that have excess leverage, as the debt is worth more than the assets value. We believe this number of negative equity is about $22B. This makes sense---on a quick and dirty basis, most of the studies indicate that the total size of 'negative equity,' or lender losses, across the US throughout 2012/2013 will be about $1 Trillion. That provides the MA market with a 2.2% market share of the "distressed debt pie."
 
 
So, getting back to “following the debt”. We have catalogued the most indepth database in the State of targeted distressed properties. We have identified when these properties have been purchased  (as if they were purchased after 2005, they are probably under water). With this information, we have either contacted or met with many of the lenders who hold the paper. On a whole, most have been 'tight lipped' as to what they were going to do. Most lenders are working with their borrowers, and using the all too infamous expression, “kicking the can down the road" analogy. However, literally since mid January, we feel the tone changing. Bankers, investment banks are proactively reaching out to us for Broker Pricing Opinions (BPO’s), portfolio analysis and national lenders looking for referrals to local law shops who category kill in the foreclosure space. Furthermore, our Great Rock Auction Brand (www.greatrock.com) and our REO/OREO disposition department should have a very busy Q3/Q4 by the looks of it now. As the proverbial shit has “begun” to hit the fan for residential foreclosures (since Q2 2008) by our definition, the storm of commercial foreclosures will probably hit in 2011. YES, there are school’s of thought that believe that both inflation and the availability of debt will provide a 'pass' for the commercial debt meltdown, we don’t believe that this will happen.

We believe exactly what is happening in the residential market, will occur in commercial, and probably worse. For example we think residential is in about the “3rd inning” here in MA. You would think the number is higher, but we tracked only $51.3M (courtesy of MLSPIN) in Bank Owned Property Sales in the City of Boston 2009; that’s it. To keep this stat in perspective, according to the tax records, Deutsche Bank has 501 properties in Massachusetts “on their books” OREO, that had a credit bid value of $118M! With Obama’s referendum on “foreclosure bans” coming to a close soon, the flood gates haven’t opened just yet. If what Bank of America is doing in Nevada, (Releasing 6K homes to the Nevada Marketplace) is any show of the times, watch residential home inventories to increase, further delaying recovery on pricing.
http://www.lvrj.com/business/bank-of-america-to-release-homes-81453352.html
 
 
In summary, my firm Boston Realty Advisors has geared up to service the banking sector with our high end auction platform, REO Disposition Group, Asset Management and Consulting Services. We are pleased that we are gaining significant traction in this space and adding value to our mortgagee clients. We are active in the MA, RI, NY and CT markets.


I am the Founder and Principal of Boston Realty Advisors. Please check in weekly to review my blog entries. I value client/reader feedback!

Sources from this research are from Public Tax Records supplied by The Warren Group and data compiled by MLSPIN.

Posted at 02/01/2010 01:19 PM by Jason S. Weissman

Weekly Thoughts From Jason S. Weissman:

Tishman Hands Back Keys
-and-
3 Fundaments of RE Investment
 
In a show of the times, Tishman is "handing back the keys" to the lenders for Stuyvesant Townas reported in today’s Wall Street Journal cover story. In 2006 Tishman & BlackRock paid $5.4B. Some say the asset is worth $1.8B. Click the link below to read the story: 
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703415804575023483097973538.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
 
Many clients of our firm have asked, "has the business of real estate private equity and real estate syndication changed forever?"  My answer to the questions is answered in the dialogue below:
How many real estate firms do you know of that made top-of-the-market acquisitions from 2004-2008? Many! These groups assumed that income revenue would simply increase by 2% or 3% per annum and that their assets would continue to increase in value. The revenue model of these syndicates was not solely predicated on capital appreciation, but also on fees i.e. Acquisition Fee’s, Asset Management Fee’s, etc. etc. Did anyone look at historical bell curve's on commercial real estate valuations over the last 40 years? Typically, the "debt" leverage for these acquisitions would be at least 80%. With average commercial real estate valuations off by at least 40%, all equity in top of the market acquisitions has generally been eroded.  
 
So, as I pose the question, has the real estate business changed forever? I don't think so. This process is simply a recalibration of the marketplace. For all of the past real estate investment shops that will fail in the next three years, new firms will start with fresh balance sheets and will hopefully be mindful of market cycles. My final comment on the issue is the following: Real Estate investments are illiquid and are really meant to be long term investments. The real estate investment shops that were hoping for appreciation and rental rate growth were caught in a game of speculation.
 
The most successful real estate investors, who seem to never loose, implement the following strategies: (not investors driven by asset management fees)
 
1) Buy with low leverage
2) Have a long term investment horizon 
3) Hope for the best, BUT expect for the worse with deal underwriting.
For example; operating costs, rental vacancies, lease absorption time, are always more than expected!
 
Take a look at last years archived market report to see how my predictions and market read were both spot on.
BRA Market Report PUBLISHED by me December 15th, 2008
http://www.bradvisors.com/news_item/pdf_file/121/Winter0809Email.pdf
 
I am the Founder and Principal of Boston Realty Advisors. Please check in weekly to review my blog entries. I value client/reader feedback!
 
Posted at 01/25/2010 12:49 PM by Jason S. Weissman