It appears that Boston real estate developers are finally believing that the recent and expected successes of Boston luxury Condos and Boston luxury Apartments are critical to the viability of commercial development such as the blighted Downtown Crossing's "Filene's Project."

The Boston Globe Article  says it all - there is quite a bit of interest in the purchase of the Filene's development site from Vornado who stopped development due to the downturn in the market a few years ago.

This is not the case in all cities across the country and not so in all of Massachusetts or even all parts of Boston. In any case, we should be pleased that there are positive signs of recovery.

Posted by : David Friedberg, CEO - Residential Division

Why do they call these the dog days of summer I wonder? Could it have anything to do with consuming hot dogs perhaps? 

I read somewhere or maybe heard it on a radio talk show Howie Carr or NPR or somewhere that in 2009, consumers spent more than $1.6 billion that's BILLION with a B on hot dogs and sausages in U.S. supermarkets. Gosh if you think about it that's alot of dogs! Or could it be they call it dog days of summer simply because someone once noticed a correlation between a hot day and their lazy dog just laying around in the shade doing nothing.  Just resting.  Could it be that simple I wonder? Interesting. 

Well it seems we sure are experiencing some pretty serious dog days so far this month!  100-105 degrees oh my! And I'll tell you it affects me. Not just the way the heat makes me feel slow but it affects work. While I can lay in the shade and rest any time I want in the type of work I do...that would be real estate sales.... unfortunately I can't do it for long.  As a REALTOR I'm pretty much self employed and often host open houses on Sunday's to meet prospective buyers (a small part of the marketing I do to reach out to prospective clients).  In the Real Estate world Sundays it seems is the traditional day to host open houses.  It sounds logical because most work from Monday to Friday however is it really practical? Does it make sense to host open houses on a weekend in the summer time? The dog days of summer time.

Hosting open houses hasn't been so much fun these past few weeks.  I assume if you're a sales agent or know one (and most of us know someone who is one) you know what I mean.  I really don't mind giving up a hot day at the beach or laying by my brother's pool to stand instead in a beautiful air conditioned home for a few hours.  Especially these days it's more important to me that I build my business and a future retirement.  God knows I've done enough bathing, lounging and BBQing to last a life time. As I said it's not so bad hosting an open house during these hot dog days. So I do it for myself and for others I work with at my company.  I stand there in the comfort of an air conditioned unit with iced coffee in one hand and listing sheet in the other.  Then someone enters!!!  And I've got to say how exciting it is when that sweaty, drained and tired home seeker happens to finally come through my door! Can you imagine how excited I am?.!?# I smile at them and offer a hand shake.  Some catch their breath while kindly shewing me away with a grin not interested in talking with me and others engage in a little kabitzing then off they go.  These days it seems there are fewer and fewer visitors.  Maybe I should consider offering lemonade or something thirst quenching...hmmm...

Seems many a Sunday has passed with only a few to none pay me a visit at my air conditioned listing.  Other than offering an iced beverage we're doing all the right things. Advertising. Marketing. Could they all be enjoying themselves at the beach on these dog days of summer? Or perhaps basking in the shade under a tree drinking their ice tea?  Yeah I'll bet they are hanging out being handed a beer and a grilled dog somewhere fun. 

Well we all work hard and deserve to enjoy dog days off especially on the weekend when all of our freinds are doing the same thing.  Enjoying themselves that is..  And who really wants to walk around 105 degree Boston touring open houses sweating bullets all over the place when they could be sprawled out with their face planted in a blanket on Carson Beach in Southie or sailing the Boston Harbor with friends or throwing a fishing line out to hook one of the many thousands of yummy striped bass swimming our waters right now!!

But isn't touring open houses important to some of you who recognize property values and interest rates are at the lowest they have ever been in a LONG time?  Touring open houses gives buyers AND sellers a better perspective of what a certain square footage can buy them in a particular neighborhood of interest.  It's an opportunity to investigate, talk to the agent and learn details they wouldn't if they just read about the unit.

So how about attending an open house on a weekday?  Perhaps after work when the sun is going down and it's more convenient for you?  Attending an open house on a week night for example promises not to interrupt your dog day summer afternoons especially the weekends!  And if you happen to spot a home that isn't open on a week night BUT wish to see it you can always call a qualified experienced AND helpful person like myself to set up a showing for you!  Happy Dog Days of Summer!

Vivian Zottola # 617-721-8025  617-721-8025 vzottola@bradvisors.com 

Boston Realty Advisors www.bradvisors.com

Where will the prices end up at some of the best office addresses in the Class “A” market? 

Hub's Historic High-Rises In 'Fight To The Finish'

Prime Addresses Pitted Against Upstarts

By Scott Van Voorhis

Banker & Tradesman Columnist

Yesterday

The overall vacancy rate for the Boston office market hovers around 13.5 percent, Colliers Meredith & Grew reports. But some of our best-known skyscrapers, like the Hancock, are struggling to fill much larger blocks of space, a trend likely to have a profound impact on the city’s economy for years to come.

With so much top shelf office space available, why would a major law firm or financial company take a chance on what could very well turn out to be a developer’s pipedream? Indeed, for companies that have long dreamed of setting up shop in one of the city’s elite towers, this is the time to make a move to an established property.

Developers hoping to start construction on a range of new skyscrapers, from the ill-fated Filene’s project to a pair of new towers next to the Rose Kennedy Greenway, can kiss these grandiose plans goodbye for the foreseeable future.

“It is going to be a tough sell for some of them, it really is,” said Vivien Li, head of the Boston Harbor Association and an astute office market observer, of developers pushing plans for yet-to-be-built towers.

Instead, in the midst of one of the worst downturns in generations, we have a fight to the finish between some of Boston’s best-established corporate addresses, like the Hancock, and a pair of relatively new upstarts on the city’s waterfront.

Established, Vacant

On the surface, the vacancy rate for downtown towers, at 13.3 percent, would appear to be closely tracking that of the overall market, if not a little below, according to Colliers Meredith & Grew.

But look more closely and you see some big blocks at some very well known addresses.

For starters, there’s the Hancock Tower, which, after being sold at a foreclosure auction last year, sports a vacancy rate that now hovers in the low 20s. Along with the 60th floor, there’s space available on the 20th, 21st and 22nd floors, as well as the 19th and 10th floors.

Just down the street, the vacancy rate at 500 Boylston St. puts the Hancock to shame. Nearly half the 1980s tower is available, including a huge, 150,000-square-foot block of space being sublet by publisher Houghton Mifflin.

Over in the Financial District, prominent towers also have gaping holes to fill.

There’s 200,000 square feet of empty offices over at 100 Federal St., where Bank of America has its regional operations. A couple hundred thousand square feet is also available at both 99 and 100 High St.

And if Don Chiofaro’s International Place towers seem to be doing a little better than most right now, sporting a 14.2 percent vacancy rate at One International Place, just wait a few months. Ropes & Gray is slated to vacate 350,000 square feet in the tower, moving over to the top floors of the Prudential building.

And as if the competition for tenants weren’t already fierce enough, two upstart high-rises on Boston’s waterfront are now entering the fray.

New Kids On The Block

Waterfront builder Joe Fallon is rolling out the first high-rise at the long-delayed Fan Pier project, with anchor law firm Fish & Richardson committed to 124,000 square feet. Not bad in a down market.

But that leaves another 376,000 square feet of space to fill in the 18-story building at One Marina Park Drive.

For its part, Boston Properties has managed to get the new Russia Wharf tower financed and built amid the worst downturn in generations.

But even after a lease to anchor tenant Wellington Management that will fill more than half the new tower, our vaunted hometown real estate giant still has another 300,000 square feet to rent.

Fan Pier and Russia Wharf bring to the market a pair of ultra modern high-rises in a city where most of the skyline is decades old. There’s the additional attraction of breathtaking harbor views, and, in the case of Fan Pier, plans for a new neighborhood of shops, restaurants and homes.

But there’s a price to be paid for new construction as well, a cost that may be hard for some firms to justify right now. Towers that are already established are going to have more price flexibility than a brand new tower with an expensive debt load to service and even more space to fill.

Say Hello To 2020

So where does that leave all those developers still hoping to make a big mark on the city’s skyline?

Well, to be blunt, it leaves them looking at a construction launch of 2020 – if that.

Tough times have never deterred Chiofaro, who opened up his twin tower International Place complex amid the brutal real estate downturn of the early 1990s.

But it’s not clear where Chiofaro will find the tenants to fill the new pair of twin towers he would like to a build a few blocks away on the site of the current Harbor Garage, overlooking the Greenway. And he will soon be scrambling to fill a huge hole in One International Place after Ropes and Gray waltzes away this year.

And what of poor John Hynes and his beleaguered drive to salvage the Filene’s fiasco and fill in the block he gutted in Downtown Crossing with a new tower?

All that needs to be said is that Fish & Richardson was once slated to go into his Filene’s tower, but is now headed for Fan Pier.

No, there is simply too much space to fill – and top shelf space at that – for any towers still sitting on the drawing boards to have a fighting chance right now.

“Who is going to go into these offices and all these fancy condos they are talking about?” Li asks. “Where is the absorption going to come from?”

But the emerging duel between establish, marquee addresses and new, chic upstarts will be interesting. Let the office market wars begin!

http://www.bankerandtradesman.com/news137009.html

It's that time of year again, and I am predicting where the residential real estate prices will be in the City of Boston at the end of 2010.

To accurately predict pricing, we have to look at the historicals and segment the marketplace, here are some key points:

We are covering the following neighborhoods:
Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Fenway, South End, North End, Midtown and the Waterfront.

We are covering only Condominiums.

Prediction # 1: Days on Market will decrease in 2010 to an average of 80 Days on Market to Sell.

Prediction # 2:  Nominal "average" sale prices will increase by 4% to 5% in the neighborhoods mentioned above. However, real prices will be flat as we expect the Urban Northeast CPI to increase to just under 5%. With this, actual appreciation will be flat.

Prediction # 3: There are about five luxury condo developments in the neighborhoods covered above. These projects will either become rentals and the larger, higher price point units will sell at significant discounts, if developers and the corresponding lenders want to unload product. Look for "original" pro forma sales prices that were $1000 to $1200 per square foot, to sell for $700-850 per square foot. In fact, there will be significant price declines in the luxury full service buildings with "a lot of product." Prices in brownstone properties and boutique full service buildings (inelastic product) should increase in the high single digits due to buyer demand.

Prediction # 4: The healthiest segment in the marketplace will be Back Bay and South End "brownstone" condominiums priced from $400-700K. These properties could have double digit price increases in 2010.

Prediction # 5: Driving the pricing stability will be the fact that mortgage interest rates should remain relatively flat this year in 2010.

Prediction # 6: Look for more purchases from international buyers and investors looking to hedge future inflation risk with purchasing top quality Boston Condo Product.

Read the detailed explanations below and Graph:
Volume of unit sales peaked in 2007 with 1,512 sales. There were 1,160 sales in 2009. To place volume of unit sales in perspective, in 2003 there were only 779 sales, while the volume of unit sales in 2004, matched the volume of 2009. What does this mean? There remains a heavy demand for condo product type in the target neighborhoods and the market remains very fluid. Days on market "DOM" increased from 2005, but with an average in 2009 of just over 100 "DOM", the Boston Condo Market remains highly liquid and vibrant.



I am the Founder and Principal of Boston Realty Advisors. Please check in weekly to review my blog entries. I value client/reader feedback! Also, please email in questions and discussion topics.